US-Iran Conflict 2026: Learn about the impacts on international trade

In a globalized world, conflicts that occur thousands of kilometers away rarely remain “local.” The current scenario involving the United States and Iran is a clear example: a geopolitical tension that quickly crosses borders and directly impacts routes, contracts, and timelines for those working in international trade.

For exporters, the consequences are reflected in freight costs, delivery predictability, and even in the security of closing new deals.

In recent weeks, regions such as the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes—and Kharg Island, responsible for around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, have experienced instability due to conflicts in the Middle East. As a result, the entire global logistics chain has been affected. Route diversions, rising maritime insurance costs, and increasingly unpredictable timelines are some of the challenges exporters are facing. Ensuring delivery under such uncertain conditions has become essential.

Oil, in turn, is one of the main indicators of geopolitical crises. During conflicts, its prices tend to rise or fluctuate significantly, creating a ripple effect: increased maritime and air transport costs, higher industrial production expenses, and pressure on profit margins.

According to Veja Economia, U.S. oil exports are expected to reach a record level in April, driven by the war and the global race for supply. The conflict involving Iran has quickly reshaped the international energy market, leading Asian countries—highly dependent on Gulf oil—to seek alternatives in the United States. Demand in the region is expected to grow by more than 80% in April, reaching approximately 2.5 million barrels per day.

Additionally, countries directly affected tend to reduce imports and prioritize domestic demands. For Brazil, this is especially relevant, as the Middle East is a strategic partner, particularly in the food sector.

In this context, negotiations become more cautious, and exporting is no longer just a commercial matter—it necessarily involves continuous monitoring of the global scenario.

Another factor intensified by this international conflict is the increased risk in financial markets, driven by currency volatility, frequent fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, and uncertainties in price formation. For exporting companies, these factors directly impact profitability, as a contract signed today may yield a completely different financial result at the time of delivery.

Although Brazil is geographically distant from the conflict, its effects are significantly felt. The country depends on global maritime routes, exports to affected regions, and is sensitive to oil price fluctuations. In other words, even without direct involvement, Brazilian exporters must remain alert and prepared to deal with these changes.

Given this scenario, some practices become essential:

• Diversifying markets is crucial to reduce dependence on unstable regions;
• Reviewing contracts becomes increasingly important, especially with the inclusion of more flexible clauses and protection mechanisms against currency and logistical variations;
• Logistics planning must be more strategic, considering alternative routes and reliable partners.

In addition, constant monitoring of the international scenario becomes indispensable for safer decision-making.

The conflict between the United States and Iran reinforces a transformation that was already underway: international trade is no longer driven solely by supply and demand. Today, it is strongly influenced by geopolitical factors.

For those involved in international operations, this represents both challenges and opportunities. Companies that are more prepared, flexible, and strategic tend to stand out in uncertain scenarios.

How prepared is your operation to respond to these changes? Keep following Menex to stay updated on international market news!